IMS Research Forecasts LEDs to 70 Percent General Lighting Market Penetration by 2020

IMS Research has extended its global lighting (lamps and luminaires) market and installed based forecasts through 2020. This new release of The World Market for Lamps & Luminaires in General & Exterior Lighting is now available to both new and existing customers.

In lighting, LEDs are continually improving in efficiency and with the quantity and quality of light they emit, all while decreasing in cost. It is predicted that by 2015, LEDs will produce greater than 180 lumens per watt. Additionally, the development of several new methods of dispersing the directional light of LEDs is creating new lighting products that can better mimic current lighting technologies.

The greatest impact from these improvements is that LED lighting will not be boxed into niche lighting markets, but in the long run should be able to penetrate all viable lighting markets that currently use an array of different technologies.

The quick adoption rate of LEDs in conjunction with their long life will have a profound effect on the global lighting market in the near future. As more and more sockets are filled with LEDs the market for replacement lamps and luminaires will decrease. This is conjunction with the year on year decrease in prices for both LED lamps and luminaires will lead to market growth slowing in 2013 and decreasing in 2014. By 2020, it is forecasted that LEDs will make up 70% of the lighting market, but growth will have stalled at 2%.

LightNOW’s take: Interesting numbers, but I believe 70% of the market is a bit optimistic. Currently, LEDs are at about 5% of the market, according to one leading manufacturer. Even if LEDs were specified 100% on all new construction from now until the end of the decade, they would still have a way to go to reach 70% of the market, unless a large volume of existing commercial buildings upgraded to LED.